Exponential Growth and The World We Live In

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A massive catastrophe is speedily reaching us. Its not a doomsday forecast, predicted in the year 1801 by a psychic named Rasus. Nor is it propaganda from giant corporation funded newspapers to insight hysteria into the consumer to buy buy buy! What we are faced with is the pure facts of exponential growth rates.

For years we have been headlined with such slogans as “Our oil reserves have been increasing production at 4% per year, which means that we have more oil than every before in the reserves”, or “the world population must increase at a rate of 3% per year or we will not have enough people to fill our factories.” How do we continue to support these same newspapers and TV programs when the fill us with this junk? It boggles my mind.

What we do not understand is how this continued 3% or 5% growth rates effect us in the long run. What this ‘positive’ growth rate fails to inform us about, is how this actually works.

First of all, when you have a 5% growth, it compounds on top of the year before, so we now have a 5% on the 105%. So, lets use numbers.

Year 1, we have 100.

  • 2 = 105
  • 3 = 110.25
  • 4=115.76
  • 5=121.55
  • 6=127.62
  • 7=134.01
  • 8=140.71
  • 9=147.74
  • 10=155.13
  • 11=162.89
  • 12=171.03
  • 13=179.59
  • 14=188.56
  • 15=197.99
  • 16=207.89

So you see, at a growth rate of 5% we will have doubled in ~15years. One might be inclined to think 100/5 = 20, so it should take 20 years to double… But no.

This simple math can be estimated with the function ln(2)/% = 70/rate. So, for our case, 70/5=14. Pretty simple. The magic thing to remember is the 70. Somebody quotes you: “oh yeh, the expected growth of this stock is 7% per year,” or “These equity funds grow at a rate of .002% per year.” Now you’ll be able to say “One second, let me take out my smart phone calculator and add these up.. 70/7 = 10 years to double! Wow great investment! 70/.002=35000 years to double??! I think I’ll stick it under the mattress, thanks all the same.”

The other amazing thing, is that when we reach this double amount, it means that the total amount we are now seeing is more than double the previous double point. So, to show figures,  year 1’s 100, the amount the year 16 (doubling year) has increased by is 107.89. This means that it has more than doubled. And this continues on forever, as long as the exponential growth (or compounded continual growth continues).

To see this in a graph:

This simple graph has year in the x axis, and resultant growth total in the y-axis. You can see that between year 12 and 13, it is very obvious that the value has gone from 4000, to above 8000; more than doubled. It doesn’t just occur in those years though, it occurs in all the years prior as well, so every doubling period sees the same growth. Every time that 70/% year hits, this doubling factor is felt.

Another thing that I would like to point out is that if you notice at any two points, if you take the same two previously mentioned at year 12 and 13, you see that the 4000 it has grown by in year 13 (to 8000 from 4000), is a growth of more than what the entire total of all the years before have accumulated to, which was 4000. This is in itself the definition of a doubling time, which is the time it takes when you do the 70/% growth factor, so you can see how quickly this will grow at?

I hope this has enlightened you a little bit, or made you more aware of what it actually means to be a compounding or exponential growth, and I hope it will make you more aware of the situation that is inferred when somebody on the news says: “We need our population to grow at 3% per year, that would be a good sustainable thing”, or “Our oil consumption has a steady growth of 3.5% per year, which is expected to grow over the next 20 years by 0.3% per year, which should give our company a great stance in the markets.”

I want to leave you with this 8 part series of videos to watch off of youtube, or anywhere else you can find, so that you can learn this from an expert Dr. Albert A Bartlett who is famous for his lectures on exponents and who will explain it in far better terms than I can!

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F-QA2rkpBSY]

Good luck!

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Day 10 of 10 Day Fast: Completed

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So the fast is done. If you have been following me through this, you would already have read my previous days: 9, 8, 5, and 2.

It has been a very interesting journey, one that I have learnt a lot about what people believe, what I believe, what I am capable of, and also what it feels like to go without food for so long. I have proved the myth wrong that a person cannot go without food for such a long time, well maybe it’s not so much of a myth as something that scares most people.

One thing that’s amazed me is that my fridge still has some food in it that hasn’t gone bad! I’ve been writing food blogs like crazy at Exercise and Mind, that have been making me get much more excited about breaking this fast, but now that I am here at this point of break, I eat a little bit, and my stomach cannot handle any more! There are so many things that I want to start eating, but I suspect it’s going to take a few days before my stomach is back to proper working order.

I broke my fast at the hour I started it, 1230hrs, with 1 apple that had made it with me through the whole fast. Yes, it tasted like a million dollars and I ate the whole thing, seeds and all. I am aware the apple seeds aren’t the easiest things to digest, maybe I’ll start an apple tree in my stomach… I had another apple at 1330hrs. Shortly after the first one, I was feeling much livelier, with much more energy. It’s an amazing thing what food does to our bodies, a little bit of nutrition goes a long way.

For my first main meal, I had some homemade carrot and yam soup! Now, I’m not sure if it was because I hadn’t eaten for 10 days, but it was absolutely delicious! I have to be careful about how much I eat though, for if I get too carried away or have too much rich foods, my stomach really isn’t going to like me too much.

This morning I took the time to meditate and do a full stretch. It felt really good, and I always get discouraged when I realize that the fast is over and I haven’t dedicated enough time during it to meditate. I guess this is because I am so focused on what I’m actually doing to take the time. After meditating though, it feels extremely good, I feel lighter, brighter, and a lot more alert and at peace with life; this is a good thing. I appreciate what I have a lot more I feel, and I also feel more in tuned with my surroundings. I like this a lot.

Will I do it again? Absolutely. Will I do it for 10 days? Thats questionable. Will I do it soon? That is doubtful.

It was a great experience, but the fact is, it takes a lot out of me, pretty much takes all my conditioning and training and flushes it out the door. It keeps me fairly un-mobile for the whole time, every bit of energy I do spend weakens me greatly. It was not a health fast, or a cleanse, it was a fast: Spiritual and mind, which is part of the reason why I get upset with myself for not taking more care to meditate; this is ok, and I am pleased with myself none-the-less. I have learnt a great deal about myself, my habits, what I can believe, and also what is important to me as a result of this fast, which yes, I did have a lot of knowledge of these things before the fast, but at some point there was a clearing up of the mess.

You know when you’re absolutely spent, like you’ve just had a day on the ski slopes, and all you want to do is sit back in the hot tub and suck back a beverage, enjoy it and let your muscles get relaxed, and this is all you can think about? Well, that’s sort of what happens. You loose sight of minor complications, overlook trifles, and realize that all of these sort of insignificant disturbances are nothing to get excited about and are all just things that will happen anyways, so just be happy and all things will work themselves out with care and attention.

So, in conclusion, it was a great success, I received some great support from people all around the world here, and on twitter @kingkabuz, and I am a very happy boy.

Thank you all for your encouragement and wise words, and I am back to normal again!

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Day 9 of 10 Day Fast

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Well, today is my last sleep before I finish this fast. It has been a very interesting journey, and it feels like it’s been quite a long time actually. I find myself at various points of the day thinking to myself: “wow, I think I could go forever without eating.” But then I realize that this is silly, and that I’m weak and light headed, not to mention hungry!

I’ve been doing a whole lot of posting of foods such as my Red Chicken on my website, in anticipation of the coming food I shall be intaking, but it’s not to nice for me thinking about all the delicious food, and then not eating anything… I consider it a better test of my will….. smart?

One thing I’m pretty happy about is that some of the fruits and veges that I’ve had since I begun are still alive and not decayed. I guess this is a sign of very little toxins that are used as pesticides, as well as to ripen the crop fast to get it to market. I actually had two bunches of bananas, one was organic and the other was regular. I bought two because the regular bunches were green, and the organic ones were just perfect (if not a bit mature). Right now, 10 days later, the organic ones are actually slightly less brown spotted as the regular ones. Amazing, I know.

I was at the grocer a while ago, talking to the grocer, and he was telling me how a banana is so covered with pesticides that a person should wash their hands immediately after touching them. I found this rather disturbing but it really does describe the difference in organic to regular bananas.

So back to the fast.

These last few days I have been getting extremely cold. I am worried about some sort of hypothermia setting in, but I somewhat doubt this will happen. But as I type this, my place is set to 22.5deg C, and I’m wearing a t-shirt, wool sweater, and a hoody; not to mention pants and giant wool socks. Its slightly weird to me, but it’s also fairly cold out, so I’ll accept this. I just hope it doesn’t turn into a cold. I feel my body is at a very healthy state right now, and it would be hard to get a cold, but this could be the inverse of what is actually truth for all I know.

I have also been finding that my sleeping pattern is extremely off. I get tired at about 10 or so, and sleep for 2 hours, then wake up and can’t get back to sleep until about 3 or 4 in the morning. This is ok, for I read for a few hours, but it’s still a bit interesting to me. I remember reading Gandhi’s autobiography Experiments With Truth where he described his sleeping patterns, and it was very similar. It makes me worry less when I remember this!

It has definitely been a bit of a struggle for me to focus on school these past 9 days, but I blame that more on the usual getting back into the swing of things rather than the fast. For me it’s always hard coming back from a break to hit the grind stone and study hard. Do any of you find this too?

Looking in the mirror, I am definitely going inward in the belly area, and not outward, not that I was before, but it’s pronounced. I can feel my hip bones, and my muscles do feel weak if I try and flex.

One odd thing is on day 7 and today, I pooped. Odd thing to mention, but it’s very interesting I could actually do this considering I haven’t eaten anything in 9 days. I was talking to a friend, and he blamed this on the tea that I’m drinking. I’m still only drinking Goji Berry tea, Peppermint tea, and water. Can any of you attest to this phenomenon?

This is about all I can report for symptoms.

Art by Poncho

For mentality, all I can say I’ve gained are:

a) a patience for life, temporary if it may be.

b) a mind for my body. I am aware of most of my movements, and thinking about a lot more of what I do with it.

c) my mind may not have become more clear, and it may not have become more stable, but I would say that I have learned or enabled myself to focus on what I really need to focus on and that I’m starting to push myself in the proper directions without hesitation. I’m not sure if this is due to the reading material, or the timing of the year, or both combined with the fast, but I can feel it within me.

So you see, I have learnt a few things along the way. The most important thing I have learnt is that I am in charge of this life, and that I can do anything. Most people I have told about this say “Why?” or “Thats really not healthy!” or “You’re crazy!” but in the end, they don’t know why I do the things I do, what I deal with daily, and the commitment required for me to follow through on such a thing. I have also had some great friends that have encouraged me, given me great advice on what to do, how to break the fast, to rest, to stay warm, which really warms my heart just thinking about the support I have learned that I do have in the world around me. This is a beautiful thing in itself.

Read my final conclusions on day 10 here!

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Day 8 of 10 Day Fast

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Today is day 8 of my 10 day fast, and it feels the same as the others have felt. As I have felt with previous fasts, the worst thing is not the agonizing pain of being hungry (which doesn’t exist) but the overwhelming desire and uncontrolled dreaming of food stuffs. Lately my dreaming has lead me to all sorts of cookies.

The wost thing is that I have some left over cookies that my mother sent home with me after the holidays sitting in my freezer (to keep them properly) for when I’m done the fast.

Something that the fast has made me dream about is to start doing more baking. I decided at midnight last night that I want to try and find a cook book, or at least some recipes that will teach me how to make soups and sauces. But, more along the lines of cookies, I want to start learning how to bake. So, in the wee hours of the evening last night I found myself dreaming about how I needed some muffin tins, as well as some loaf tins and a mix master to start this process.

Back to the fast.

I am finding that it is no problem to do the days these days, except the plain fact that I dream about food. There are times when I’m really hungry, and wish I could eat things, but that’s more because of the mere thought of food, rather than a pain for food.

As far as physical symptoms and properties go, I find that, of course, I have much less energy. On my walk to school, there is a slight uphill section, and at the end of it I am noticeably out of breath. This is rather natural, since for starters I’m not doing any exercise to keep myself in shape, as well, I have no food in me to give me any sort of reserves of energy needed to allow myself to get through this activity.

I have also noticed that at times it feels like a lot of work to get a full breath of air inside of me. My rib cages feel heavy, but it does feel good when I make the effort to breath full.

As well, I notice that while sitting all day at class, if my back is slightly slouched, or not being held in proper posture, it begins to hurt. 2 more days.

Overall though, the main reason why I’m doing this fast was a mental clarity. This I am finding somewhat. I am finding a calm serenity in my mind, which I believe will hold fast when I am finished. Being able to know that nothing else matters is a very great thing, but also knowing and studying how I react is a very beneficial test. The most strange thing is that I find I am able to not be stressed at all. During this whole process, I have been in very interesting situations that should have caused me much more stress, but as it turns out, I have been calm and relaxed and accepting of what it is that fate deems necessary. Now, this may or may not be due to the fact that I am also reading a book called: “How To Win Friends and Influence People” by Dale Carnegie, which is an extremely great read and I recommend to all of you readers.

So, I am happy, I feel healthy (in spite my weakness), my sleep patterns are weird and off, but during the day I feel alert. Although, I do get tired earlier so I do go to be early which then gives rise to me getting up at midnight to do some work and going back to bed after a few hours. This reminds me of Gandhi, and how he used to have the most intense sleeping patterns, where he would sleep in a similar fashion, except he had a few cat naps in there as well.

I am finding that the Honey Tea is an essential factor to this fast. It works as a slightly better hunger depressor than water and tea, but still isn’t food. I’m only using about half of a teaspoon of sugar in my tea, and it allows me to keep my blood sugar up and eliminate the woozy, dizzy, sick feelings that sometimes overcame me.

2 more days and I think I can make it. So tempting to just start eating some foods, but I will prevail the victor of this challenge I am certain. Any words of encouragement?

Photography: Randy Mayor; Styling: Melanie J. Clarke

Read more about day 9 here!

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